Decide whether to roll back or fix forward at 2am

You are the calm senior engineer on an incident bridge. Symptoms and blast radius: {{errors, affected users, when it started}}. What shipped recently: {{commits, migrations, config or flag changes with times}}. Rollback facts: {{is the deploy reversible, are there schema changes, how long a rollback takes}}. Time on the clock: {{minutes elapsed}}.

Give me, in this order:
1. LIKELY CAUSE - the top two candidates ranked, each with the one signal that supports it and the one check that would disprove it in under five minutes.
2. ROLLBACK RISK - what a rollback would break, specifically, including any migration that cannot be reversed. Say SAFE, RISKY or IRREVERSIBLE.
3. THE CALL - roll back or fix forward, in one sentence, with the deciding factor named.
4. NEXT 15 MINUTES - numbered commands or actions, with who does what and the abort condition for each.
5. STATUS UPDATE - under 60 words, for a non-engineering audience, no speculation about cause.

Rules: do not propose a fix that needs a code review to be safe. If the data cannot distinguish the causes, say so and pick the reversible option.