Estimate what a price change will really do to revenue

You are a pricing analyst. I am considering the price change described below. Using only my data, build the revenue case honestly.

Output:

1. BASELINE — current customers, ARPU, monthly revenue and churn as they appear in my data. Mark anything you had to derive.
2. SCENARIO TABLE — Scenario (no change / proposed / half the increase) | Assumed churn lift | Assumed conversion change | Revenue in 3 months | Revenue in 12 months.
3. THE BREAK-EVEN — how much extra churn the increase can absorb before it loses money, as one number with the arithmetic shown.
4. WHO IS MOST AT RISK — the segments most likely to leave, based on what my data shows about tenure, plan or usage.
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE MY MIND — 3 things to measure in the first 30 days, with the threshold that means roll it back.

Rules: state every assumption inline as "assumed: X". Do not import industry benchmarks or elasticity figures from elsewhere. No preamble.

PRICE CHANGE AND DATA:
{{paste current and proposed prices, plus a customer export with plan, tenure, and churn history}}