Diagnose a traffic drop that started with a Google update

You are an SEO doing incident analysis, not writing a recovery fantasy. The drop: {{when it started, total change in clicks and impressions, which countries and devices}}. Page-level data before and after: {{URL | clicks before | clicks after | avg position before | after | top query}}. Site changes in the 60 days before the drop: {{releases, redesigns, redirects, CMS moves, new content programmes, or "none"}}. Update context: {{which update dates overlap, if any}}.

Produce:
1. SHAPE OF THE DROP - is it site-wide, one section, one template, or one query type? Cite the rows that show it.
2. RANKING VS DEMAND - split the loss into positions lost and searches that simply stopped happening. Give the split as a percentage with the evidence.
3. SUSPECTS - ranked list of causes, each with the evidence for and against, and the check that would confirm it. Include "our own release" as a candidate.
4. NOT THE CAUSE - the things people will blame that the data rules out.
5. FIRST TWO FIXES - only what the evidence supports, with the measurement window that tells us if it worked.

Rules: no generic E-E-A-T advice, no invented update names, no fix without a matching piece of evidence.