Qualify or disqualify, on the evidence

Assess this deal honestly: {{paste notes, emails, call summaries, stage, amount, timeline}}.

1. For each of these, state what we actually know versus assume, with the evidence: the problem is real and painful; they have budget; someone internal wants this to happen; there's a reason to act by a date; we know how they buy; we're differentiated versus their alternative.
2. Score the deal's health and name the weakest link.
3. Name the assumption I'm most likely making out of hope.
4. Give the single question that would most change my assessment, and who to ask.
5. Say whether this should stay in the forecast, move out, or be disqualified — and if disqualified, the graceful way to do it.
6. If it stays: the next action, the date, and what must be true two weeks from now for it to still be alive.

Be the person who tells me the deal is dead. Optimism here costs me a quarter.