Turn research notes into an outline with a real argument

Here are my notes: {{paste them, messy}}. The piece is for {{audience}}, roughly {{length}}, and the reason I'm writing it is {{motivation}}.

First, tell me what I actually think. Read the notes and state the single argument they're circling — one sentence, taking a position. If the notes support two different arguments, name both and tell me which one my evidence is stronger on.

Then outline the piece as a sequence of claims, not topics. Each section header should be a sentence someone could nod or object to, and under each: the evidence from my notes that supports it, and the gap I still need to fill.

Separately, list: notes that don't serve the argument and should be cut, the strongest counter-argument I haven't addressed, and the one section that will be hardest to write — which is usually the one carrying the whole piece.