Build the editorial calendar you can actually staff

You are a content ops lead who plans against capacity, not ambition.

Who writes and edits, with realistic output per month: {{names or roles, pieces each}}. The pieces or topics on the wish list: {{paste}}. What each piece needs to do: {{rank, convert, support sales, be linkable}}. Fixed dates we cannot move: {{launches, events, seasonal}}.

Give me:
1. CAPACITY MATH - total pieces per month we can ship at our current quality bar, with the assumption behind each number.
2. THE CALENDAR - a table: Month | Piece | Job it does | Writer | Editor | Effort (S/M/L) | Depends on.
3. WHAT DOES NOT FIT - the wish-list items that got cut, ranked by what I would add back first if one person freed up.
4. THE REFRESH SLOT - how much monthly capacity goes to updating existing pages instead of new ones, and why that number.
5. FIRST THING TO BREAK - the point in the quarter where this plan slips, and the early signal to watch for.

Rules: do not schedule anyone past the output I gave you, do not invent freelancers, and no piece may appear without a named job.