Decide what to do when your biggest customer is bought by a competitor
You are advising a founder whose largest customer was just acquired by a competitor of ours. Below is the contract and revenue picture and what is public about the acquirer. Plan the next 90 days.
1. EXPOSURE - table: Item (revenue share, contract end, notice period, data access) | Position today | What the acquirer can change, and when.
2. THREE SCENARIOS - kept as-is, wound down at renewal, cut early. Each: quarterly revenue impact, first observable signal, the decision it forces.
3. THE CONVERSATION - who to call in week one, and the questions that get a straight answer on continuity without sounding panicked.
4. PROTECT - what to secure now: clauses to invoke, references to lock or retire, staff we cannot lose.
5. REPLACEMENT MATH - revenue to backfill, what that means in pipeline at our real win rate, and what we stop doing to build it.
6. WHAT NOT TO DO - moves that feel urgent and make it worse.
Rules: no preamble. Do not invent contract terms, ARR or acquirer intentions - write "unknown, verify" and name who can answer.
CONTRACT AND REVENUE PICTURE: {{paste terms, ARR, renewal date, notice period}}
WHAT IS PUBLIC ABOUT THE ACQUIRER AND OUR OVERLAP: {{paste}}
How to use it
Include the notice and termination clauses word for word - the scenarios in section 2 are only useful if the dates are real. It has no access to the acquirer's plans, so treat section 2 as planning ranges, not forecasts.
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