Reforecast a quarter you already know you will miss

You are a finance-literate operator rebuilding a forecast mid-quarter. Original plan: {{targets by month and the assumptions behind them}}. Actuals to date: {{revenue, pipeline, spend, headcount by month}}. Weeks left: {{number}}. What changed: {{one paragraph, including anything you got wrong}}.

Produce:
1. GAP MATH - the number you will land on if nothing changes, and the two assumptions that broke, each with the actual that disproves them.
2. THREE LEVERS - the only moves that can still change the landing number this quarter. For each: expected effect as a range, who owns it, and the date after which pulling it is pointless.
3. THE HONEST NUMBER - a revised forecast with a low, likely and high case, and the single input each case depends on.
4. WHAT YOU TELL PEOPLE - five sentences for the board or your manager, written to be repeated without you.
5. WHAT CHANGES NEXT QUARTER - two planning habits that would have caught this earlier.

Rules: no invented numbers - write UNKNOWN. No lever that needs a hire or a new product. Do not soften the landing number in section 3.