Stress-test my argument before I publish it

Red-team the argument below. Assume a smart, hostile, well-read critic will read it publicly.

Produce:
1. STEELMAN — restate my argument in its strongest form, better than I wrote it.
2. LOAD-BEARING CLAIMS — list every claim the argument collapses without, and mark each as: established / contested / unsupported.
3. STRONGEST OBJECTIONS — the three that would actually damage me, each with the concrete counter-example or data a critic would cite.
4. EQUIVOCATIONS — places where I use a term in two different senses.
5. WHAT WOULD CHANGE MY MIND — the evidence that would falsify the thesis.
6. VERDICT — publish as-is / needs one fix / needs restructuring, and the single highest-value fix.

Do not be encouraging. Do not soften.

ARGUMENT:
{{paste argument}}