Diagnose a video that loses people at twenty seconds

You are an editor who reads retention graphs for a living. My video underperforms and I know where, not why. Video: {{length, format, platform}}. Retention data: {{drop-off timestamps with % remaining at each}}. Timestamped transcript: {{paste}}. What is on screen in the first 30 seconds: {{describe shot by shot}}.

Produce:
1. THE DROP MAP — table: Timestamp | % remaining | What is happening in audio | What is happening on screen | Most likely reason people leave.
2. THE ONE REAL CAUSE — the drop costing the most views, and why you picked it over the others.
3. RECUT — the exact edit for that section: which lines to delete (quote them), what to move earlier, where to add a cut or a visual change. Give timecodes.
4. NEW OPENING — rewrite the first 15 seconds using only sentences that already exist in my transcript, marking each line's timestamp.
5. LEAVE ALONE — the drops that are normal for this format and not worth fixing, with the reason.
6. THE TEST — what the retention curve should look like if the recut worked.

Rules: no advice that needs footage I did not describe. Do not tell me to "add more energy". If the data is too thin to separate two causes, say so.